This is a wonderful year’s diary of a girl’s 2011 in LA, a few seconds at a time.

I think it speaks strongly to the power of visual imagery to spark memory and emotion.

2011 from hey_rabbit on Vimeo.

We often get asked what it’s like to live here, especially about the weather. We usually offer up a shorthand version such as, “Austin has real weather and three seasons. The summers are hot. It’s basically the flip side of living in Minneapolis, where during the winter you run from heated car to heated building. During the summer in Austin you run from air conditioned car to air conditioned building. The difference is that in Minneapolis during the winter if your car dies, you die too, whereas in Austin in the summer, if your car dies, you just melt.”

Our general advice is to visit anytime between Halloween and Memorial Day.

The local paper here in Austin today posted a summary of the 2011 weather year. This will give you the statistical picture of what the weather is like here.

Note that last year was exceptionally hot, with many records established, not the least of which was 90 days over 100 F (37.8 C). We also tied the all-time record high temperature of 112 F (44.4 C) and remain in a record drought.

(click on image for full size)

My rating: 4 of 5 stars

In the future, when someone uses the phrase, “monumental effort,” I will think of this book.

Mr. Wilkinson has not only attempted, but delivered, a summary history of the Egyptian civilization, from conception to Cleopatra.

Aside from the scope of the work, coupled with actually having achieved it, the most remarkable thing about this book is that Mr. Wilkinson was able to craft such an accessible work.

Even when faced with source material that was both sparse, thousands of years old and almost exclusively the output of dictatorial propaganda departments, Mr. Wilkinson created a narrative that is both engaging and enlightening for the everyday, non-academic reader.

To give some perspective to the scale of the timeline involved, Thutmose IV, who reigned from 1399 BC to 1389 BC, excavated and restored the Great Sphinx of Giza, built by a previous Pharaoh, which was by then buried in shifting sands and already more than 1,000 years old. In today’s world of countries that are mostly less than 300 years old, it is challenging to imagine unearthing a national monument 1,000 years old in a nation that would survive 1,000 years more.

Thutmose IV is but one of 168 Pharaohs who are individually addressed in the book, along with relevant geopolitical and regional context for their times. Somehow, Mr. Wilkinson has derived, extracted and discovered anecdotes that illuminate the life and times of many of these pharaohs, from the famous, such as Tutankhamun and Cleopatra, to the obscure, such as Neferefra and Sobekemsaf II.

While pedants may long for more detail and champions of a particular period, Kingdom or Pharaoh may wish for a more sympathetic endorsement, the overall tone of the book is even and mostly suitably detached, all while avoiding academic sterility. The flaw in this regard is the author’s persistent hectoring of the ancient Egyptians for not being a replica of modern Sweden, along with its leading U.N. Gini index. Despite his sterling credentials, Mr. Wilkinson loses perspective and thus credible assessment of the realities of ancient societies when he repeatedly calls the ancient Egyptian theocratic dictatorships to task for not being more of a socialist paradise. It is hard to imagine how such a goal could have been either achieved or sustained in an era of almost universal illiteracy, cultural isolation and xenophobia. However, in the scope of a work of this magnitude, this is a minor quibble.

It is daunting to even consider addressing, in a meaningful way, a time span of 3,000 years. Mr. Wilkinson has done so, and in a very readable and entertaining fashion.

View all my reviews

The holiday is Labor Day, which was established to celebrate the work and efforts of all who toil to earn a living.

Like most holidays, it has accrued additional meanings and symbolism over the years.

For some, it is a fashion milestone, signaling the time to store away the white shoes, belts and dresses until next summer.

For others, it’s the traditional end of summer frolic and time to return to school.

And for others, it’s the beginning of long anticipated American football amateur and professional sports seasons.

But, the root and purpose of the holiday is to feature and appreciate the efforts and labors of every working man and woman in the country.

Along those lines, I came across this video today in a post by a VC.

The video relates what happened when a lawyer ridiculed a teacher at a dinner party regarding the teacher’s relative abilities, income and contribution to society.

I find it particularly appropriate for this Labor Day weekend holiday.

As those of us here celebrate this holiday and our friends around the world pause for their weekend, it’s good for all of us to ask ourselves, “What do you make?”

Link to video: What do you make?

The political destiny of the U.S. for the next 25 years is sealed.

Here’s how:

In the United States, the proportion of the population aged >65 years is projected to increase from 12.4% in 2000 to 19.6% in 2030 (3). The number of persons aged >65 years is expected to increase from approximately 35 million in 2000 to an estimated 71 million in 2030 (3), and the number of persons aged >80 years is expected to increase from 9.3 million in 2000 to 19.5 million in 2030 (3). In 1995, the most populous states had the largest number of older persons; nine states (California, Florida, Illinois, Michigan, New Jersey, New York, Ohio, Pennsylvania, and Texas) each had more than one million persons aged >65 years (4). In 1995, four states had >15% of their population aged >65 years; Florida had the largest proportion (19%) (5). By 2025, the proportion of Florida’s population aged >65 years is projected to be 26% (5) and >15% in 48 states (all but Alaska and California) (5).

(source: CDC http://www.cdc.gov/mmwr/preview/mmwrhtml/mm5206a2.htm )

Here’s how it looks graphically in one of those demographic pyramid charts I’m always ranting about. (Note that the axis scale changes; what’s important is the shape)

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(source: US Census Bureau)

The disaster of Japan’s demographics:

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Sources: Japan Statistics Bureau, Japan MIC, Japan Ministry of Health, Labour and Welfare

Note the inverting demographic pyramid as Japan moves through time. The point is that there are not enough young workers to pay for the social cost of the aging, non-working population, especially health care. Northern and western Europe and Russia exhibit similar demographic pyramids.

The only reason the U.S. chart doesn’t look like Japan’s is immigration. Immigration is the only chance to have enough young workers to pay for the older population. If you strip out the immigrant population in the U.S., the demographic pyramid looks a lot more like Japan’s.

So, what’s the point of this as it relates to politics?

Older people tend to vote more conservatively.

Sources:

http://www.gallup.com/poll/106042/age-vote-more-strongly-related-obamamccain-matchup.aspx

http://elections.nytimes.com/2008/results/president/national-exit-polls.html

Older people tend to vote for older people.

Source: http://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.1111/j.1559-1816.1987.tb00318.x/abstract

Older people vote more than young people.

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Source: U.S. Census Bureau http://www.census.gov/compendia/statab/cats/elections/voting-age_population_and_voter_participation.html

Older people watch more television.

Sources:

http://www.variety.com/article/VR1117988273

http://www.huffingtonpost.com/2010/08/16/broadcast-tv-audience-agi_n_683009.html

http://www-958.ibm.com/software/data/cognos/manyeyes/visualizations/prime-time-tv-viewers-by-age-demog

Older viewers watch conservative news.

Sources:

http://www.pensitoreview.com/2009/05/05/average-age-of-fox-news-viewer-is-65/

http://www.hollywoodreporter.com/blogs/live-feed/fox-news-oldest-cable-audience-54230

Older people are the fastest growing segment of internet users and blog more than younger age cohorts.

Sources:

http://www.marketingcharts.com/interactive/social-networking-rises-especially-among-younger-set-11886/pew-change-internet-use-age-feb-2010jpg/

http://www.pewinternet.org/Infographics/2010/Internet-acess-by-age-group-over-time.aspx

http://pewresearch.org/pubs/1093/generations-online

There are 76 million baby boomers coming down the demographic pipe, 24.4% of the 2011 population.

Source: U.S. Census bureau

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Chart source: CDC

People in the U.S. are living longer.

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Source: World Bank

The boomers will be around for a long time: 1955 + 80 = 2035.

Source: elementary math

Political Implications:

As the rat of the boomers moves down the demographic snake and the U.S. population ages out, the U.S. will go through an extended period of conservative voting driven by an increasingly aging population that has little more to do than sit in front of the television and the internet.

In parallel to the aging out of the boomers and their increasing political conservatism and intellectual isolation and decline, the U.S. will go through an extended period of political, social and cultural crisis of confidence and identity as the rest of the world catches up economically and collectively threatens and attenuates the multi-faceted global dominance the boomers’ world view took for granted.

If geopolitics remain comparatively stable, the U.S. will remain relatively center-right politically when compared to OECD peers, as they also trend toward conservative politics driven by their own similar demographic shifts and perceived geopolitical and domestic threats.

Due to the demographics, there will be an opportunity for a radical shift in the U.S. to a far-right, ultra-nationalist political movement if a significant and extended crisis threatens “life as we’ve always known and remember it” in the U.S. Examples of disruption that could trigger such a move include: energy, food, climate, large-scale regional war, world war, financial collapse, etc.

Conclusion:

It is difficult to imagine any demographic or geopolitical scenario conducive to a sustained left/liberal political agenda in the U.S. for the next 25 years.

My coastal friends often needle me about my fly-over state sensitivities, and rightly so. The issue sometimes becomes more of a cause than an observation for me, and that’s always a dangerous slipperly slope.

However, in my defense, I offer this tweet by Lance Ulanoff, Editor in Chief of PC Magazine.

Interesting Idea: Crowdsourcing the snow removal: http://nyc.snowmageddoncleanup.com/

I’ve never met him, but I’m sure Mr. Ulanoff is an intelligent person and a nice enough guy.

But, wow, does this ever cast him as uninformed, culturally isolated and elitist.

In the snow belt areas of the U.S. outside the coasts, people have been crowdsourcing snow removal since the first settlers arrived.

My great-grandfather and his brothers helped dig out the snow bound trains that ran through their small village and farms.

My father and I cleared heavy snows from the sidewalks and driveways of our neighborhood.

In the fly-over states, that just what people do.

Apparently, the coasties are just figuring it out; but nonetheless, I’m glad to see it finally happening.

It’s a good thing to help, and know, your neighbors.

It turned out to be one of the most popular essays of that era. 

Since then, it’s turned into a bit of a holiday tradition, with old friends asking early in the holiday season if I’m going to post it again.

As I mentioned last year, we’ve been to more places since I wrote this, so we no longer have room on the tree for decorative ball ornaments, it’s completely filled with just the lights and the little things Steph collects along the way we use as ornaments.

Otherwise, the story remains the same. You can read it here: http://www.hackneys.com/travel/seekers-12.pdf

We’ve got our own list of lessons learned from those travels here: http://www.hackneys.com/travel/index-lessons-byarea.htm

Gary Arndt, who spent the last three years doing the same, was recently interviewed by Tim Ferriss and gave his 20 lessons learned here: http://www.fourhourworkweek.com/blog/2010/10/30/20-things-ive-learned-from-traveling-around-the-world-for-three-years/

I echo every one of Gary’s lessons learned.

I also encourage everyone to get out into the world so they can see these realities for themselves.

I learned six lessons today.

The lessons came from over the bridge.

 (click on photos for larger image)

Lesson One: What goes up, often comes down.

We’ve had a long, good run around this part of the world, but now we’re in a downward portion of the cycle. If we don’t pull up, we (and that’s not the royal we, that’s the collective we, as in you and me and just about everyone else you know) will, in aviation terms, “auger in.” That means we’ll “buy the farm.” That means that if we don’t get it together and turn things around, it’s going to get a whole lot worse before it gets any better.  

Lesson Two: Collective fate.

Lesson Three: The cost of anarchy.

Everybody being able to do their own thing in their own way with no consideration of what the impact is on anyone else sounds great in the abstract. That type of thinking makes a lot of sense when you don’t have anything to lose or you just don’t give a damn.

But, if you’ve got something to lose, and the anarchic actions of someone else around you can not only cause you to lose everything you’ve got, but also cause them to lose everything they’ve got, then it doesn’t make any sense at all.

Lesson Four: The cost of partisanship.

The chances of getting anything done when half of the people are aligned exactly opposite of the other half is exactly zero. If all you want to do is be exactly opposite, exactly opposed, to whatever the other half is attempting to achieve, then collective progress is exactly zero.

When the collective formation is heading into the ground, being intent on being opposed does not help the overall goal of life, liberty and the pursuit of happiness. All it does is guarantee that everyone will auger in at more or less the same time.

Lesson Five: Success requires cooperation.

If you want to keep things in the air, then you need to keep an eye on what the overall priorities are—keeping things in the air—and cooperate with who is up in the air with you.

That’s the only way you keep things moving forward.

And return them to an upward trajectory.

Lesson Six: Things are much closer than they appear.

Those who promote diametrically-opposed partisanship or knee-jerk, tangential flight to any other-tribe objective often claim that all obstacles or imminent threats are a long ways away.

 They say there is plenty of time to correct the collective downward trajectory once they seize total control before anybody, much less everybody, augers in.

But in reality, everything, especially the existential threats, are much closer than you’ve been led to believe.

That means all of us, regardless of race, creed, passion or politics, better wake up and smell the jet fuel.

If we don’t, we’re all going to collectively meet the angels a lot sooner than we’d prefer.

* * * * * * *

Just like the people of the United States, the Blue Angels team consists of men and women of many different races, origins, beliefs and interests. The Blue Angels demonstrate what is possible when people of many different races, origins, beliefs and interests work together to achieve a common goal.

* * * * * * *

The Navy Blue Angel flight demonstration squadron flies Boeing F/A-18 Hornet aircraft.

The Blue Angels performed their first flight demonstration in June 1946.

The name was created by the original team when planning a show in New York City in 1946. The name was discovered when one of the original team members noticed mention of the city’s famous Blue Angel nightclub in the New Yorker Magazine.

In 2009 the Blue Angels performed for more than 8 million spectators. Since 1946, the Blue Angels have performed for more than 463 million spectators.

More information on the Blue Angels is available here: http://www.blueangels.navy.mil/index.htm

* * * * * * *

All photographs by Stephanie Hackney

I compiled my thoughts on the primary challenges the United States faces in the coming decade, and ways to overcome them, here: http://www.hackneys.com/docs/facingthefuture.pdf

The primary focus in this collection is on domestic challenges, although some geopolitical issues are addressed.

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